Keir Harman, Director, Renewables Operations, DNV
UK onshore wind is a mature and proven technology. With 15 GW of capacity installed to date, there are many wind farms that are now approaching 30 years of operation having consistently delivered high availability and financial performance. Onshore wind competes with solar PV as the cheapest forms of electricity generation in the UK.
In recent years, hiatuses in deployment, particularly in England have not been so much a matter of financial viability, but more restrictions in permitting. The recent government decision to lift the de facto planning ban on new onshore wind development will revive the onshore wind market that was booming six years ago (in just eight years, from 2010 to 2018, 10 GW of onshore wind was installed in the UK).
The most recent Contracts for Difference auction (AR5) resulted in 24 new onshore wind contracts, totalling 1.5 GW at a strike price of GBP 53/MWh, signalling that the industry is poised for construction again. However, grid bottlenecks and wait times for connection are limiting speed and scale of deployment. There are currently over 200 wind projects with a total capacity of over 20 GW queued and waiting for a grid connection, 16 GW of which have agreements with the ESO to connect by 2030. This is the highest number of projects queued in any single country in Europe (DNV’s UK Energy Transition Outlook). This demand gives a strong signal that the number of prospective onshore wind projects is not a constraint to UK capacity growth.
DNV is of the view that wind farms that are existing today will either be repowered or life extended first and that full decommissioning and removal will be rare. Up to 2030, a large proportion of the projected increase in capacity will arise through repowering as greenfield developments continue to experience grid connection and permitting hurdles. In the longer-term greenfield sites will take over from existing repowered wind farms to meet the 50 GW+ installed UK onshore wind capacity projected in our model by 2050.
Repowering
The average age of UK onshore wind turbines is around 12 years old with an average turbine rated capacity of 1.8 MW. If the existing fleet of 7,500 turbines were to be repowered with contemporary 4-5 MW turbines reworking and extending current project footprints and extended permits, then over 30 GW could potentially be achieved with a rolling replacement programme. Advances in turbine control, design and materials mean that loading can be more sophisticatedly managed whilst maximising energy output and staying largely within existing wind farm boundaries. Such ‘power boosts’ are technically feasible but require relaxation in aspects of planning to allow higher turbine heights and continued removal of grid bottlenecks.
A recent demonstration of repowering potential is the Hagshaw Hill Wind Farm in Scotland, owned and operated by Iberdrola SPR. Initially, 14 turbines are replacing the original 26 turbines installed in 1995. The fewer, but larger and more efficient turbines mean that the repowered wind farm will produce five times more energy.
Extended Lifetime
A factor contributing to lower cost of energy for onshore wind in recent years has been longer lifetime assumptions. Typically, a UK wind farm financial model will assume an economical life of more than 30 years. This assumption is up from 20/25 years generally assumed at financial close of most of the current installed fleet. Longer lifetime not only gives favourable reduction in cost of energy but lowers the overall carbon intensity with arguably 50% more production for only a marginal increase in raw materials.
In recent news, Ventient Energy (now Nadara) obtained approval to extend original planning consents. This allows them to operate six wind farms that are 20 years old and have a combined capacity of 200 MW for an additional period of 10 years. This extension increases their operational lifespan from 25 to 35 years.
Hybrid and co-located projects
A growing trend is to enhance current onshore wind assets by combining them with solar energy, battery storage, or even hydrogen production facilities, utilising the same land and grid connections. These hybrid or co-located projects offer several potential benefits:
· Preventing delays and unnecessary expenses associated with connecting to the grid
· Greater flexibility and dependability in electricity/energy supply
· Reducing the effects of grid limitations and compulsory reductions in power output
· Streamlined permitting process by using land designated for energy production
Although the UK Government’s target of 30 GW of installed onshore wind capacity by 2030 could be seen as ambitious, a combination of repowering, co-location alongside new developments and life extension offers a plausible and affordable route to reaching this ambition.
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Keir Harman, Director, Renewables Operations, DNV
Keir Harman is a Director at DNV, he brings 25 years of experience of strategic development in the renewables industry. Currently directing teams delivering asset optimisations services, digitalisation, inspections, performance monitoring and energy forecasting. He has led and managed global teams that to date has assessed over 100GW of operating wind and solar farms, both on and offshore, worldwide. More recently Keir now helps energy sector leaders with ESG strategy including finding a pathway to achieving net zero emissions including adoption of hydrogen and storage technologies whist also planning for biodiversity net gain. His career highlights include establishing wind farm optimisation services at Garrad Hassan; pioneering and publishing techniques now adopted by the wider wind industry and delivering strategic optimisation programmes for DNV customers. A Chartered Engineer, Keir holds an MSc in Renewable Energy Systems from the University of Loughborough, UK and Risoe, DK.
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